The End of Google China?

Following cyber-attacks identified as Chinese’s on private information figuring on Google.cn and 20 other major IT, media, finance and technology companies, Google has published on its official blog an official announcement :

“We will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China.”

So, what are the consequences if Google was to shut down Google.cn :

x Business : Baidu will gain most marketshares coming from publisher’s paid search programs as well as Bing and other less significant homegrown search engines. Google owned about 36% of search engines market share in China in 2009 4th quarter.

x Ethics : Google would gain more credibility in the West after it was critized for “adjusting” to Chinese local market requirements, i.e. sourcing censored search results

But honestly, is this alleged attack the real kick for this major decision and is this a smart move ? If Google was making more bucks in China would it leave? Now that the market doesn’t look like a promised land anymore, ethics, on which Google had closed eyes before, are invoked to justify a possible departure – perhaps not to “lose face”.

I understand the commercial decision, as well as the good intentions of some people towards the censorship issue. But strategically, this looks like a big step. Backwards. What do you think?

To find out more (and see how this will affect your SEO in China) check the links from SEO company Them.Pro and the official Google blog.

To be followed…